Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
